Блог на проф. Кръстьо Петков

A.J. - USA

Dear Prof. Petkov

In the Bulgarian economic conundrum even the most adroit finance minister will be caught between the rock and the hard place. The currency board deprives him from using monetary policy, while a near balanced budget is exactly the prescription for killing the patient in crisis, while the principle of "fiscal responsibility" is being upheld. None of the EU inner Six, except perhaps Luxembourg, are within the proscribed limits, nor the top two economies of US and Japan would meet the test (if they were members), no matter what they show on paper. They all cheat. How then could Bulgaria do it without risking civil unrest?

Of course a more intelligent, communicative, charismatic, i.e., a politic leader would have communicated his predicament at the level of the populace, engaging the nation in a dialog, and explaining the necessity of the hard choices he had to make, while courting and winning some powerful allies in business and government. Instead, in infantile manner, Djankov provoked the nation's head of state to a senseless imbroglio, distracting, divisive and counterproductive. And he alienated business with untimely threats, populist in nature, highly inflammatory on both sides. The ultimate price will be paid by the nation, as it is always the case.

On the issue of business leading the way out of the mess: In market oriented economies it always does, if the Government doesn't stand in the way. In Bulgaria there is no reason why it should. In fact, Mr. Borisov was a businessman before he embarked on a political career, so he should understand the argument.

When I first analyzed Bulgarian business, (1991-1993 period), Bulgaria had a number of large government owned business organizations which, for obvious reasons, were dysfunctional. My advise, to then the President's economic adviser, Prof. Berov, Mr. Pushkarov, the Minister for Commerce & Industry, A. Bozhkov, Head of the Privatization Agency, and subsequently Reneta Indjova
was, with our help, to package and quickly prepare for sale as many of them as possible to major US & European industrial concerns. Understandably, the advise was disregarded, so I proceeded doing whatever I could on my own. The consequences were to be expected, but that's water under the bridge now. I was too early, and I was an outsider.

Today the vista is completely different. The survivers, gained ground and acceptance while accumulating valuable business experience. Their organizers are now quite wealthy. My bet (or hope) is, that some are patriotic, and now they may wish to help their country by expanding their businesses into truly global enterprises (today they are at best regional), hire more people, make much more money in the process, while paying their fair share in taxes to the government, and thus boost the economy. An economic tide like that lifts all boats, big and small.

The means to finance such growth is to introduce these businesses to the international equities markets, prepare them for listing on the appropriate exchanges or OTC markets, which are much more liquid and, shares appreciate much more rapidly, especially for growth companies.

This may sound like an impossible dream, but it has been done thousands of times by companies from all over the world, and why shouldn't some Bulgarian companies make it? Especially if they already have significant and successful business experience? The only obstacle would be the owners/managers of the companies themselves, but then, that's what investment banking is all about - showing the owners what they could become using all the advantages of modern finance.

It is my impression that Bulgarians have their idiosyncrasies, and may of them amount to a draw back, but so do other nations. On the whole Bulgarians rank well above the average in intelligence which is evident to those who can peer though the dust of the current economic and cultural mess. Why can a Chinese company accomplish this and not a Bulgarian one?

Hardly because of their government. Their founders' enterprising spirit did it!

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Горното е идеята ми в най-общи щрихи. Ако Ви се стори хвърчаща и неизпълнима, в никакъв случай няма да споря с Вас, напротив, бих се съгласил. Но същевременно бих отбелязал, че още по-хвърчаща и по-скоро Сизифовска би била идеята да повлияем на правителството. Естеството на демокрацията е, че се гради на въображението на масите т.е., на демагогията. В противен случай политикът няма шанс да спечели. В момента, в който започне да обяснява на масите защо и как, вместо да им говори това, което искат да чуят, той е свършил като политик. Вероятно най-добре формулираното предупреждение е на немски:

Allen Leuten recht getan,
Ist eine Kunst die niemand kann!

Което е приблизително нашето: “На всички не можеш да угодиш”, в случай че не знаете немски. (Моето първо увлечение беше германската култура.)

А какво прави след като спечели политикът е съвсем друго нещо.

Не Ви казвам нищо ново, просто изяснявам лични убеждения, които не са абсолютни и търпят известни модификации.

A.J.
USA